| Executive Summary
This working paper analyses the BP
Statistical Review of World Energy with respect to CO2 emissions from fossil
fuel consumption. The focus is put on the classification of Annex-B and
non Annex-B countries as defined in the Kyoto protocol.
The method is to convert the fossil
fuel consumption with specific emission factors for coal, oil and gas into
CO2 emissions and to analyse the results. Though this method might be critizised
as being too simple, the trends and relative changes are reproduced sufficiently
accurate.
Main trends are:
-
The world CO2 emissions from fossil
fuel consumption in 2001 were only slightly higher than in 2000 (less then
one percent). Since 1990 world CO2 emissions increased by about 9 percent.
-
The emissions of Annex-B countries are
one percent below the 1990 emissions. This decrease is mainly attributable
to the strong emission reductions in the Economies in Transition, but also
to a weak world economy in 2001. The only other countries with reduced
emissions are Sweden (- 5 %), UK (- 4 %), and Germany (-11 %), where the
latter also (but not only) took adventage from the inclusion of the former
GDR. In 2001 emissions from OECD countries decreased for the first time
since many years.
-
The emissions of the non Annex-B countries
increased by about 32 percent, giving these countries a larger share on
total emissions of about 37 percent.
-
The largest relative increases come
from Thailand (+ 112 %) and South Korea (+ 113 %). Only in 2001 this trend
was stopped, possibly due to higher oil prices.
-
The share of coal in primary energy
supply decreased in most countries. The strongest decrease took place in
China.
-
China increased its coal consumption
until 1996 heavily, but reduced it since then by almost 25 percent, resulting
in 3 percent less coal consumption than 1990.
-
The world‘s largest coal consumer in
1990 was China; in 2001 the world‘s largest coal consumer were the USA,
which also had the largest absolute increase in coal consumption
-
Emission trends of many countries seem
to be influenced by the Kyoto protocol. Those of China seem to be most
influenced. On the other hand, China and India with the high specific CO2
emission per primary energy unit still have a huge potential for further
improvements in energy efficiency.
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Content
1 Introduction
2 LBST - Methodology
3 The Emissions of the Negotiating
Parties of the Kyoto Protocol
3.1 Emissions of Annex -B Countries
3.2 Emissions of Non Annex-B Countries
Using the LBST method
3.3 Emission Changes 1990 to 1999
3.4 Development of CO2 Emissions
4 Primary Energy Consumption
4.1 The Share of Fossil Fuels
4.2 Coal Consumption
5 References
6 Abbreviations
7 Appendix: Fossil Energy Consumption
and CO2 Emissions
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