Replenishment of Multilateral Climate Funds in the context of the NCQG and BtBR

Following COP29’s agreement on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) and the Baku to Belém Roadmap (BtBR), multilateral climate funds face growing political and financial expectations. The NCQG decision calls for a significant increase in resources through UNFCCC climate funds and for tripling annual outflows by 2030 compared to 2022 levels, though interpretations of this mandate remain contested among Parties.

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of replenishment prospects for multilateral climate funds, including the Green Climate Fund, the Global Environment Facility, the Adaptation Fund, and the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage. It finds that the strict tripling target by 2030 appears achievable, given sustained current contribution levels. However, a materially larger role for these funds in delivering the USD 300 billion NCQG goal would create a substantial financing gap, exhausting available resources before 2030. The paper examines existing resource bases, potential financing sources, and relevant negotiation agendas in the lead up to COP31.