Eyes on Beijing

China’s course will determine the direction of global climate policy. Europe can still take appropriate diplomatic measures.

A decisive moment is emerging in global climate policy. While temperatures are rising and extreme weather is becoming the new normal, the USA is once again shirking its international responsibilities. The focus is now on three political heavyweights: Berlin, Brussels, and Beijing. With its climate policy, China in particular will play a decisive role in determining whether we can keep the global temperature rise below two degrees and possibly even limit it to 1.5 degrees, or whether this crucial target, which will determine the living conditions of future generations, will finally become unattainable.

2025 could be a turning point in global climate policy: currently, China’s CO₂ emissions are falling for the first time – not due to a weakening economy, but despite rising energy demand, fuelled by the dynamic expansion of renewable energies. This means that China’s annual CO₂ emissions could peak this year. At the same time, a key decision is imminent: China is about to publish its 15th Five-Year Plan. In addition, after having missed the February deadline, the country is yet to submit its new and updated national climate targets (Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs) to the United Nations. These targets will determine the direction of China’s climate policy until 2035 – and will therefore have a significant influence on whether the Paris climate targets can still be achieved. Another turning point: China has only recently replaced the EU as the second largest historical emitter. Its per capita emissions are now above the EU average and roughly on a par with Germany.

The current geopolitical shifts require a reorganisation of international climate and energy cooperation. Germany and the EU should recognise China’s importance in international climate policy – especially by stepping up their diplomatic efforts this year. After all, the coming months are of critical importance. However, given the composition of the new German government, it is questionable whether Germany and Europe are up to this challenge, or even sufficiently aware of it.

There is currently a rare window of opportunity for European climate diplomacy. There is still time to persuade China to set the most ambitious climate targets possible – before the country presents its new NDC in September, probably at the UN General Assembly in New York. High-ranking representatives from both sides will meet at the EU-China summit in July. This summit offers a potentially decisive opportunity to apply diplomatic pressure and to reach agreements on joint responsibility. However, Germany and the EU are currently preoccupied with internal challenges – ranging from the new German government’s strategic working capacity to security and defence issues at the EU level. These issues could run counter to the EU’s own climate ambition. But it is precisely this ambition that determines whether demands on China can be made credibly and emphatically.

China’s role in international climate protection is central and unique. Without an ambitious climate policy in the world’s most populous country, neither a global energy transition nor compliance with the 1.5-degree limit is possible. Two long-term plans, which China is expected to release this year, are of utmost importance for an ambitious climate policy but also represent potential breaking points: the national climate plans and emissions targets up to 2035 as well as the economic underpinning required for these targets, the Five-Year Plan up to 2030. Although China is driving forward the expansion of renewable energies at an impressive pace, the country is still heavily reliant on coal. The Chinese energy market and electricity grid still need to undergo significant transformation. What is needed in China is an acceleration of structural change that entails a faster reduction of fossil fuel dependency and a clearly scheduled phase-out of coal-fired power.

In the context of international climate policy, China continues to insist on its status as a developing country, which seems contradictory given its status as the world’s second-largest economy. At the same time, this self-image is not unfounded: hundreds of millions of people continue to live in relative poverty and the country looks back on a history of exploitation by Western colonial powers. These experiences have shaped China’s perspective and demand for global climate justice. Nevertheless, China is flirting with a leadership role, especially in terms of narratives and discourses, but it often acts opportunistically when it comes to taking concrete action. Its ambitions and climate goals should reflect this leadership status more strongly, combined with constructive participation in international forums such as the G20 and the UN climate conferences.

The consequences for Europe and Germany are clear: China’s decisions this year will have a major impact on how close we stay to the 1.5-degree limit. Every tenth of a degree is of immense importance. However, the diplomatic room for manoeuvre is shrinking every month – and it depends above all on the EU’s own climate targets, which are yet to be officially submitted. The later Europe acts and the more it deviates from its own ambitions, the less influence it will have.

Last but not least, Germany has to uphold its own climate ambitions in order to be able to make credible claims and demands on China. The timetable for the EU NDCs and the adoption of the 2040 target also play an important role in this context. Germany should support the proposed EU target of reducing emissions by 90 percent by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, and it must not allow emission reductions to be watered down through measures that are approved by the Paris Agreement. Greenhouse gases must be reduced domestically and not be offset by certificates abroad. The coming months will determine whether Berlin, Brussels, and Beijing will work together to turn the tide – or whether the global climate will tip over. China plays a central role – and is becoming increasingly important. Germany and the EU have to adopt a more active, strategic, and coherent approach to climate policy now. We need more knowledge, more capacity to act, and more targeted commitment. Climate policy dialogue with China is not a bonus but a must.

This article was first published in German on 28 May 2025 in the Economy and Ecology section of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation’s  IPG-Journal.