COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, will convene against a backdrop of global turmoil. Among the challenges are intensifying climate impacts and a strong El Niño compounding climate-induced extreme weather events, the biggest energy price crisis since the 1970s, geopolitical tensions, and growing pressure on multilateral cooperation. While the global energy transition is gaining momentum and renewable energy and storage are expanding rapidly, climate action remains dangerously off track. The first signs of critical climate tipping points are emerging, while limiting global warming to 1.5°C will increasingly depend on keeping any temporary overshoot as short and shallow as possible.
Against this backdrop, the UN climate conference needs to shift the focus from negotiation to implementation.
Germanwatch identifies three factors against which the success of COP31 should be assessed:
- Visible implementation of the Paris Agreement: COP31 needs to demonstrate progress on existing commitments from tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency to accelerating electrification. Countries also need to launch or advance national roadmaps for transitioning away from fossil fuels. At the same time adaptation and loss and damage need to receive greater political attention, with credible progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation and increased financial support for responding to loss and damage.
- Strengthening and improving the effectiveness of the UNFCCC process: Much of the work on implementation and finance is increasingly taking place outside formal negotiations. The Action Agenda can help accelerate delivery but must come with clear responsibilities, timelines, and monitoring, including all relevant actors. COP31 should also agree on the design of the Second Global Stocktake and signal willingness to evolve the UNFCCC so it can better support implementation, raise ambition, and track progress.
- Mobilising adequate finance: Climate action cannot be delivered without adequate and accessible finance. Countries of the Global North must provide reliable and growing public climate finance and agree upon a clear pathway towards the USD 300 billion NCQG goal and the USD 1.3 trillion mobilisation goal. COP31 should advance new polluter-pays mechanisms, strengthen the role of Multilateral Development Banks and climate funds, and lay the groundwork for finance that does not increase debt burdens. Finance for adaptation and loss and damage must be strengthened in particular, so that resources reach the countries and communities facing the most severe climate impacts.
