Berlin/Bonn (6 Nov. 2026). For the environment and development organisation Germanwatch, the UN Climate Conference COP31, beginning Monday in Antalya (Turkey), is a litmus test for international cooperation: Amid the global tug-of-war between countries pushing for climate action and a group of countries trying to prolong their fossil fuel profits, will it be possible to achieve breakthroughs that lead to more decisive and rapid action? Science is clear: we are entering an overshoot reality with the associated risks of reaching irreversible tipping points: But Global warming can still be limited to below the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 if global emissions are reduced rapidly.
‘Oil, gas, and coal are high-risk energy sources. At COP31 the question is whether countries come together to enable a new path to stability – one where electrification and rapid expansion of renewable energy and storage are replacing fossil business models. The question is whether the poorest and most vulnerable will be enabled to take part in a renewable future or are left alone in the climate and energy crises. Wealthy countries need to pave the way to energy and finance cooperation that doesn’t increase debt but instead increase resilience – to volatile fossil fuel markets as well as a to mounting food price crises,’ says Jennifer Tollmann, Executive Director, Politics at Germanwatch.
Voluntary alliances must lead to infrastructure on the ground
Petter Lydén, Head of Division for International Climate Policy at Germanwatch, adds: ‘Such alliances should lead to real world change, not mere fluffy expressions of intentions. Every initiative needs clear responsibilities, deadlines, and transparency on progress. As part of the preparations for the second global stocktake under the Paris Agreement by 2028, countries should also clarify how the results of such alliances will be reflected in the stocktake – and also how this stocktake will build on the most up-to-date science.’
For this COP, Germanwatch is calling on governments to demonstrate how much progress they have made so far towards the goals adopted in 2023: tripling renewable energy, doubling energy efficiency, and halting deforestation by 2030. In Germany the specific question is how the recently published national roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels will be underpinned by an electrification strategy.
At the same time, the world is heading towards a severe food price crisis in 2027. FAO has flagged a perfect storm of droughts, floods, El Niño, and a fertilizer shortage exacerbated by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. ‘With a food price crisis looming, countries at the COP must clarify the path for intensified adaptation cooperation on the road to the COP in Ethiopia next year at the latest. Concretely, traditional donor countries and development banks must provide clarity on how they intend to secure adaptation financing in the coming years,’ says Lydén.
Climate finance is a necessary and worthwhile investment
When it comes to international climate finance, Germanwatch sees an urgent need for action overall – including in Germany. The current budgets of industrialized nations fall far short of what is necessary and what has been promised. Yet last year at the COP, German Chancellor Merz pledged to remain a reliable partner. ‘Industrialized nations must view their public climate finance as a worthwhile investment and significantly increase it. Climate finance improves international security, stabilizes supply chains, and fosters resilient partnerships. In addition to public finance, we must fully embrace the polluter-pays principle to mobilize the necessary funds. This means that those who emit a lot – whether fossil fuel companies or the ultra-wealthy – should pay their fair share for climate protection and adaptation, through taxes or levies,’ demands Ute Sudmann, Head of Division for Future-proof Finance at Germanwatch.
COP31 should chart a course for achieving the previously agreed-upon climate finance targets of $300 billion annually by 2035 — with clear interim goals. Otherwise, many necessary climate mitigation and adaptation measures in the countries of the Global South risk failing due to a lack of funding.
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At COP31 Implementation-Alliances can accelerate climate action and resilience – especially for the most vulnerable
Governments around the world want to pave the path away from dependence on volatile fossil fuels towards renewable electrification – COP31 a litmus test whether a path of renewable electrification is also opened for poorer countries